After meetings in Beijing, Trump should judge every proposed techno-economic and trade deal on one question: Does it strengthen or weaken China’s national power industries?
Thanks, Robert, for having two commentaries back-to-back on the PRC. We have our backs up against the PRC here in Taiwan, so always appreciate it whenever important thinkers look at the problems with our policies toward China, and how they challenge America's security and economy. We need new policies that will both strengthen openly our relations with our allies as well as protect our economy against those rivals who have made it a mission to replace America as a leader.
This article is hard to argue with, as it states succinctly what we've been observing for decades, except that it is heavy on warning and light on recommendations. We need to figure out where in the critical "power" tech value chains we can build scale with our allies, rather than calling them feckless (as a former and proud Boeing employee, I have a hard time believing Boeing wouldn't have done the same thing had the tables been turned): For instance, rather than excluding the majority of European allies from Pax Silica, we should agree on areas of the chips value chain where a joint transatlantic+transpacific market of 2.5 billion (NA + EU + Japan + S.Korea + AUSNZ + India) can build complementary capabilities and scale. The power of US hegemony pre-2000 was rooted in the ability to build global markets and alliances that expanded the pie. Time to revive that M.O. While I don’t believe China’s ascent will be linear, it is hard to see how we can negotiate and co-lead as equals in the global economy 10 years from now without this renewed emphasis on alliances for scale.
Be tougher without being capable? With no strategy, culture nor Industrialists? Boeing and feckless deserve to be in the same sentence yes. EU and US they same in many regards i.e. a we let accountants run engineering companies for thirty years problem.
It's worth mentioning that the domination of innovation by the valuation race and jumping from one undelivered disruptive innovation promise to another, notably by Musk from EVs to Robotics, has been ruining America's delivery capacity and creating the ground for China to enter and win the race. The US must regulate such wealth accumulation techniques. Unfortunately, rather than regulating such a toxic exercise in wealth accumulation, the White House is fuelling it.
" It is a carefully orchestrated, multi-decade strategic campaign backed by massive subsidies, protected domestic markets, cheap capital, forced technology transfer, and state-directed investment"--missing element: China's success in gaining an innovation edge, notably in RE and EV, which the West cannot replicate. NorthVolt's failure to imitate CATL underscores this reality. China is on the way to replicating this success in all other critical industries. Unfortunately, many Western intellectuals and think tanks have yet to understand and acknowledge it, let alone craft a pathway to counter it. Here is NorthVolt's analysis: https://www.the-waves.org/2025/01/23/northvolt-battery-adventure-lesson-does-the-economist-get-it-wrong/
Thanks, Robert, for having two commentaries back-to-back on the PRC. We have our backs up against the PRC here in Taiwan, so always appreciate it whenever important thinkers look at the problems with our policies toward China, and how they challenge America's security and economy. We need new policies that will both strengthen openly our relations with our allies as well as protect our economy against those rivals who have made it a mission to replace America as a leader.
This article is hard to argue with, as it states succinctly what we've been observing for decades, except that it is heavy on warning and light on recommendations. We need to figure out where in the critical "power" tech value chains we can build scale with our allies, rather than calling them feckless (as a former and proud Boeing employee, I have a hard time believing Boeing wouldn't have done the same thing had the tables been turned): For instance, rather than excluding the majority of European allies from Pax Silica, we should agree on areas of the chips value chain where a joint transatlantic+transpacific market of 2.5 billion (NA + EU + Japan + S.Korea + AUSNZ + India) can build complementary capabilities and scale. The power of US hegemony pre-2000 was rooted in the ability to build global markets and alliances that expanded the pie. Time to revive that M.O. While I don’t believe China’s ascent will be linear, it is hard to see how we can negotiate and co-lead as equals in the global economy 10 years from now without this renewed emphasis on alliances for scale.
Be tougher without being capable? With no strategy, culture nor Industrialists? Boeing and feckless deserve to be in the same sentence yes. EU and US they same in many regards i.e. a we let accountants run engineering companies for thirty years problem.
Capability would be good.
It's worth mentioning that the domination of innovation by the valuation race and jumping from one undelivered disruptive innovation promise to another, notably by Musk from EVs to Robotics, has been ruining America's delivery capacity and creating the ground for China to enter and win the race. The US must regulate such wealth accumulation techniques. Unfortunately, rather than regulating such a toxic exercise in wealth accumulation, the White House is fuelling it.
" It is a carefully orchestrated, multi-decade strategic campaign backed by massive subsidies, protected domestic markets, cheap capital, forced technology transfer, and state-directed investment"--missing element: China's success in gaining an innovation edge, notably in RE and EV, which the West cannot replicate. NorthVolt's failure to imitate CATL underscores this reality. China is on the way to replicating this success in all other critical industries. Unfortunately, many Western intellectuals and think tanks have yet to understand and acknowledge it, let alone craft a pathway to counter it. Here is NorthVolt's analysis: https://www.the-waves.org/2025/01/23/northvolt-battery-adventure-lesson-does-the-economist-get-it-wrong/