Thanks, good piece, very clear and plain language. As someone very much learning about economic theory, can you comment on potential wage compression (alongside increased AI productivity), or do your above points account for that implicitly?
At a high level, I agree we need a more optimistic, growth mindset for the incoming changes, but I still think AI's basic 'computer use ability' seeps into other 'non-white collar knowledge' sectors and employment rates subtly... (this coming from someone with years in various sector office admin, project work).
You write "...problems complex enough that AI simply can’t handle them: legislators, CEOs, antitrust attorneys..." but I follow AI progress closely, and I'd argue AI as of Apr 2026 (w/ monthly spend of $100s) can at least get close to human performance in legislative research, drafting, case building etc. (especially with fine tuned local datasets, regulations, cleverly appended in a Karpathy inspired LLM knowledge base).
For the macro changes to be less dramatic, accrediting and professional guilds and bodies need to allow for quicker career shifts (e.g. intensive fast track programs), casting a wider net, offering subsidised retraining, with a human focus on transferable skillsets, what makes you you etc etc.
thanks. What's wrong with wage compression. Lets just say that AI eliminates 1/3 of higher wage jobs (highly unlikely). That means that the prices Americans pay for goods and services will decline, which means their real incomes go up. So while some higher wage earners may now make less, all other earners will now make more
Thanks for responding. I understand now you think it's deflationary, but in the era of Trump (i.e. a selfish, transactional, might makes right, narcissistic mindset) I fear those productivity gains get absorbed by profit margins, alongside regulatory capture, & niche sector lobbying against frontier AI access/usage (see proposed legal advice restrictions in NY, 3d printing regulation etc.), and we essentially see a cash grab by executives and asset holders before the wider deflationary effects further diffuse
Thanks, good piece, very clear and plain language. As someone very much learning about economic theory, can you comment on potential wage compression (alongside increased AI productivity), or do your above points account for that implicitly?
At a high level, I agree we need a more optimistic, growth mindset for the incoming changes, but I still think AI's basic 'computer use ability' seeps into other 'non-white collar knowledge' sectors and employment rates subtly... (this coming from someone with years in various sector office admin, project work).
You write "...problems complex enough that AI simply can’t handle them: legislators, CEOs, antitrust attorneys..." but I follow AI progress closely, and I'd argue AI as of Apr 2026 (w/ monthly spend of $100s) can at least get close to human performance in legislative research, drafting, case building etc. (especially with fine tuned local datasets, regulations, cleverly appended in a Karpathy inspired LLM knowledge base).
For the macro changes to be less dramatic, accrediting and professional guilds and bodies need to allow for quicker career shifts (e.g. intensive fast track programs), casting a wider net, offering subsidised retraining, with a human focus on transferable skillsets, what makes you you etc etc.
thanks. What's wrong with wage compression. Lets just say that AI eliminates 1/3 of higher wage jobs (highly unlikely). That means that the prices Americans pay for goods and services will decline, which means their real incomes go up. So while some higher wage earners may now make less, all other earners will now make more
Thanks for responding. I understand now you think it's deflationary, but in the era of Trump (i.e. a selfish, transactional, might makes right, narcissistic mindset) I fear those productivity gains get absorbed by profit margins, alongside regulatory capture, & niche sector lobbying against frontier AI access/usage (see proposed legal advice restrictions in NY, 3d printing regulation etc.), and we essentially see a cash grab by executives and asset holders before the wider deflationary effects further diffuse